How do we make a strategic choice when forecasts no longer hold?

When forecasts are unreliable, start by identifying the central challenge and framing it as a question that the team needs to answer. This creates a practical focus for exploring possibilities, rather than treating uncertainty as a reason to defer a decision. Research should first examine the context around the problem, including the forces, underlying issues and perspectives that may be shaping it. The problem can then be defined more precisely and investigated through an approach designed to provide relevant data, information and knowledge. From there, develop a small number of possible responses and make explicit the conditions that would need to be true for each to succeed. This gives the team something concrete to assess instead of relying on a single long-range prediction.

Cross-functional participation is most useful when people have the time, support and freedom to contribute beyond their immediate responsibilities. A productive session needs an open environment where participants can exchange views, disagree, learn from one another and admit uncertainty without judgement. Leadership presence matters because it signals that the work has support and that participants can explore possibilities rather than simply defend existing positions. Include people who can explain the challenge from different parts of the organisation, and use research to hear perspectives from employees at different levels. Collaboration should broaden the team's understanding of the problem, while the decision itself remains anchored in clear choices, explicit conditions and practical tests.

A strategic option becomes more useful when the team can state what must be true for it to work. Surface those conditions, select the ones that matter most, and build tests that help distinguish between the strongest possibilities. Testing does not remove uncertainty, but it gives decision-makers a disciplined way to challenge a preferred direction before major commitments are made. Analysis still has an important role in testing and rationalising a creative possibility, even when it does not generate the possibility itself. Once a choice is made, prepare the team to act on it and connect that choice to creative execution. The aim is a clearly defined offer that can be brought to market in a distinctive way, rather than a strategy that remains only a discussion document.