How do we choose a business direction for an uncertain future?

Choose a business direction by exploring several possible futures rather than relying on a single prediction, then judging where the business could compete as conditions change. Scenario planning combines imagination with preparation, helping leaders consider unfamiliar possibilities and shape a direction that can adapt.

Explore possibilities instead of relying on one prediction

Explore possible futures, including situations that have not yet arisen, rather than treating one forecast as the basis for a business direction. The aim is to consider where the business could play and how it could succeed under different conditions.

A 2025 Deloitte survey of board and C-suite respondents at organisations in more than 50 countries found that 55% identify geopolitical and economic volatility as a short-term concern, while 52% identify technological advancement and digital disruption as a long-term concern.

Give scenario planning time and resources, and involve people from different functions to bring different ideas into the discussion. Make room for human ingenuity, empathy and collaboration alongside data analysis. Exploring unfamiliar possibilities means accepting that some ideas will prove unsuitable. Treat that risk as part of finding a better direction, rather than a reason to stay with familiar approaches.

Sources: Investigating imagination: our research proves it drives business success, Imagination: the missing metric in your business strategy