Which futures should shape our business direction?

Explore future possibilities beyond the outlook your business already expects. Human ingenuity, empathy and co-creation can help leaders consider where a business should compete and how it might succeed under different conditions. Data analysis can inform that work, but the strategic task also requires imagining situations that have not yet arisen. Give teams time and resources to develop alternatives, and make it safe to share ideas that challenge familiar approaches. Include both near-term disruption and longer-term change: Deloitte reported in 2025 that 55% of board and C-suite respondents identify geopolitical and economic volatility as a short-term concern, while 52% identify technological advancement and digital disruption as a long-term concern, across organisations in more than 50 countries, including financial services, industrials and technology.

Treat scenarios as possible futures to examine, not forecasts to trust. Imagining solutions to problems that do not yet exist involves a risk of getting the future wrong; accepting that risk is part of finding ways to change for the better. Scenario planning therefore needs time and effort, alongside a willingness to learn from failure. Its purpose is to expand and challenge strategic thinking rather than remove uncertainty. In its 2024 discussion of US board practices, the National Association of Corporate Directors described organisations replacing fixed long-term planning with continuous strategic planning that repeatedly explores options, pressure-tests assumptions and develops scenarios across different time horizons.